Tuesday, October 12, 2004

This is the most maddening game ever! Yesterday, I had basically decided to cash out my “protected” poker bankroll at Neteller ($1K), and planned to pull the bulk of my online bankroll ($300) from the multiple sites. I had around $50 at Empire and decided to screw around with it in $25/PLO8, knowing that I was willing to take more risks with it and could live with tilting it away in two turns.

The best laid plans… I won, more than doubling my buy-in. Somehow, I was freer with the bets, neglecting pot odds, playing more loosey-goosey, laughing at my suckouts. I wasn’t grinding, but “playing” with the table. I made the majority of my winnings on one sweet suckout where I read the opponent right, knew I was beaten going into the river, called a pot-sized bet, and sucked out on him. This was classic “implied tilt odds” because this guy was the table leader with $50+, and tilted away half his money on one hand and the other half in the next two hands, and promptly disappeared into cyberspace.

I was in BB with AK86 with no real low chances, but was allowed to check and see the flop for free with two others. KKT flopped and I bet $2 to test the waters, looking for the case K. I found it when the guy across from me popped the pot after one caller. I paused for a second and called and our sandwich player quickly folded. A Queen turned, and I threw another $2, just to confirm my feelings and basically telegraphing that I had a K. He immediately popped back, meaning he boated with either TT/QQ (and was trying to kill my K-high boat draw) or KT/KQ (and had already boated K-high). Remember, I had already MENTALLY cashed out, so I called, even though I knew he already had his boat and I was pulling for a 4-outer at best (three aces or the case king if he had QQ/TT). Last card was an Ace and I laughed out loud, knowing I had just made a horrific suckout. I bet the pot, he kicked me all-in, and I showed my Kings over Aces boat and he showed his Kings over Queens. I resisted the temptation to mock openly, because I knew I would be steaming if I was in his shoes, but boy, was that funny!

It shows how all the analysis about table odds and percentage plays and all that other crap means very little IF THE MONEY DOESN’T MATTER TO SOMEONE. What makes online poker difficult and challenging is that you have NFI what someone’s motivation is, what their cash situation is, or what their mindset is. You can only assume a rational model that fits a few basic characteristics (loose, tight, aggressive, weak) and fit your decision-making around those models. That’s why tournament play is more predictable. Everyone has the same goal and all but the winner will eventually bust out, meaning you are all operating under the similar definitions of success and failure. That’s why I hate re-buys, it skews the play.

Baseball Predictions :

Red Sox in six. MVP of ALCS = David Ortiz. The Wankees don’t have left-handed pitching to counter him and short RF porches in both stadia means big numbers for him.

Cards in five. MVP of NLCS = Jim Edmonds. Even if Clemens were to pitch game two on short rest, he hasn’t been dominant in the postseason. At last check, the Astros were trying to rent Randy Johnson for the series…


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