Thursday, December 02, 2004

Here’s an interesting exercise (or not, depending on your perspective). I placed 2nd in a $10 O8 SnG last night, and didn’t feel like I even played.

67 total hands
63 flops
59 turns
55 rivers

8 hands that I took to showdown (lost 3 including the last one, won 5)
22 hands where I put money in, but didn’t stay for the showdown (lost 17, won 5)
37 hands I didn’t even play

– 8/67 hands go to showdown? This seems really low for O8

– 22/67 folded before showdown. Obviously, most of these were blinds that were raised or small blinds that didn’t complete, but this seems too high.

– I had A2 four times. I had A3 three times.

– Can you say “calling stations”? Over 80% of hands see the river. Sheesh.

You know, on second thought, this isn’t interesting. Sorry. Nothing to see here. Move along.


I know I said it wasn’t interesting, but I wanted to check out the numbers for another O8 SnG (another 2nd place, this one on Sunday). I was surprised at similarity of the results.

48 total hands
48 flops (!)
44 turns
43 rivers (!) – Now we’re up to almost 90% of hands going to the river.

OK, just one more. This one is from last week (yet another 2nd, I think I need to improve my H2H play).

82 total hands (I guess this one lasted longer)
58 flops (!) – Aha, this one was tighter, explaining the extra hands played
51 turns
51 rivers (!)

EUREKA! Two very clear conclusions can be made here based on this massive sample size (three whole tourneys!). Remember this is O8 on Empire/Party. Your results may vary.

1. Just about everyone who sees the flop, sees the turn.
2. Just about everyone who sees the turn, sees the river.

So if you have your hand made on the flop, DON’T SLOWPLAY. Apparently, these people are in for the entire ride. Raise, raise, raise. If you're on a draw, you can limp in knowing that your pot odds are good. If you make your hand on the turn, raise, raise, raise. They'll call. Trust me.


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