Friday, July 30, 2004

FIVE IN A ROW!  Of course, that's five third place finishes in a row for you Negative Nellies, and five cashes in a row for you Positive Peters.  An unbelievable streak of poker almost-good-enough-ism!  This makes me like the Philadelphia Eagles of Poker, just good enough to make it to the penultimate challenge only to watch two other guys fight it out for the big prize.

Following my normal pattern, I kept clear of the major skirmishes enough to crawl into the final three with a tidy 5420-1830-750 deficit.  Sigh.  With blinds at 150/300, I raised all-in preflop from SB with A7o and was dismayed to have both other guys call.  They cowardly checked it down after the board flopped Q64, turned a 5 (giving me a glimmer of hope), and rivered a useless T.  At least I thought it was useless, especially when BB flipped up A7o...  UTG f(big stack) lipped up T3o to win with a rivered pair of tens.  TEN-FREAKIN'-THREE OFFSUIT!  What the hell was he doing playing T3o after an all-in and a call?!  So naturally, instead of gasping for breath and in ICU, they're pulling the sheet over my head and tying my toe tag.  All I needed was BB to muster up ONE freakin' bet after the flop or turn, UTG would rightfully fold his garbage, and I'm still alive.


Anyway, the streak came to an ignominious conclusion at five as I busted out of the next tourney in fifth.  Turns out the tide shifted two spots, but in the wrong damn direction!  One interesting thing I need some stathead to figure out.  Two straight hands in the middle of the tournament, EXACT same flop (Qc, 2d, Jh).  I would guess the odds would be the same as any specific flop (3/52 times 2/51 times 1/50).  Let's see, that would be a one in 22,100 chance.  Hmmmm... seems like it should be more than that.  Any comments on my math?

I've studied the last tournament hand-by-hand and I found some minor over-tight play where a push might have stolen a pot or two, but no loose mistakes.  I never called when I was drawing dead or even drawing thin (< 25% pot odds).  Even then, none of the long shots would have come in...  This was just a case of NO cards, and over-tight play when I got mediocre ones (A-rag, Kx or Qx suited specifically).  I got pocket queens once, raised preflop and made a minor bet on a low flop and promptly took down a piddling pot.  But other than that, NO pocket pairs, NO Big Slick, NO A-face suited.  I got AQo once and that was the hand that I busted out on. 

Bad cards.  That's one good thing about SnGs.  Your losses are limited when the cards go cold, and you don't chase money by re-upping or dipping deeper.  You just pick up your jacket and leave the table.


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