Monday night memories

Here’s something I almost forgot…

If you need a reminder of how deeply ABC/ESPN sucks on Brett Favre’s rotting carcass, did you see the “Top Ten Plays in MNF History”?

What a complete load of shit.  The top play?  A fluke catch by Antonio Freeman against the Vikings.  Somehow that managed to trump Tony Dorsett’s 99-yard run, Bo Jackson’s 91-yard run, and John Taylor’s amazing TWO 90-plus yard touchdown receptions in a single game (which appallingly didn’t even make the top ten).

Instead they list shit like Jumbo fucking Elliott catching a touchdown.  Oh, like offensive linemen NEVER catch touchdown passes around the goal line.  Yeah, surprised it wasn’t Refrigerator Perry or someone equally media-fuckable.  They also list Brett Favre’s post-Dad game against the execrable Raiders.  Listen, Favre had a terrible game, it’s just that the Raider DBs had a worse game.  I’ve never seen DBs collide so many times chasing passes like that.

Anyway, since MNF was such a huge part of my life, I wanted to post MY top-ten moments in MNF history:

10. Jerry Rice breaking the touchdown record against the Raiders.  The 49ers had already blown them out and went deep anyway just so Jerry could break the record at home.  
9. Cosell saying “Look at that little monkey go!” about Alvin Garrett, ex-smurf who became a symbol of NFL political correctness.
8. Cosell announcing the death of John Lennon.  I actually remember hearing him say it.
7. The first time I heard “Are you ready for some footballllll?”.  It (briefly) reinvigorated a dying industry.
6. Earl Campbell against the Dolphins.  I still have no idea how that DB missed tackling him.  He had the angle and seemed to just be pacing Earl for the last thirty yards.
5. Bo Jackson’s run against the Seahawks.  No, not the one where he went 90 yards.  The one where he blew a hole in Brian Bosworth.
4. The guy giving the finger to the camera in Houston.  Classic TV.
3. OK, I’ll give Dorsett this one.  99 yards deserves some props.
2. John Taylor’s TWO 90+ yard touchdowns, both on 15 yard pass plays, and some great downfield blocking from Jerry Rice.  Amazing, and something we’re not likely to ever see again.
1. Theismann.  LT.  SNAP!  Over and over and over and over again.  

Happy belated Holidays!

Since I haven’t officially “blogged” anything since last week, I want to wish you all a happy and safe holiday season…  a couple of days late.

Christmas for me tends to be a little haphazard.  We still congregate with my mom’s family AND my dad’s family on Christmas Eve, just like we did when I was a little Commish.  Since both families are primarily in the Bay Area, this becomes an exercise in driving and organization to make sure the right gifts get to the right homes.  

The driving started at 3pm on Saturday to my uncle’s (dad’s side) house in Palo Alto.  There we had a potluck dinner with all of the aunts and cousins cooking up their specialities.  Ham, scalloped potatoes, spam musubi (!), cheesy garlic bread, Chinese chicken salad… all of the traditional foods.  This was followed by my cousin’s incomparable chocolate cake (made from scratch) and coffee.  Then we had the kids open their gifts from the aunts and uncles (the cousins with kids made a deal long ago that we wouldn’t buy each others kids gifts).  And then came the now-traditional gift exchange (y’know, the one with stealing gifts and general hilarity… whoopee).

One side note: the Twenty Questions game is spooky good.  I showed everyone the online version, and while some played the handheld version, others clustered around the monitor to watch the 20Q engine figure out “wasabi” after sixteen guesses, “penguin” after seventeen, and many others leading my cousin to declare the game “The Devil in a box”.

Anyway, by now it was 830pm and time to head to my sister’s house where my mom’s side would gather.  My sister lives in Sunnyvale, so we packed up the gifts and leftovers and headed south.  Sound like a pain?  Well, it is.  Every freakin’ year.  So we run the same drill at my sister’s house.  Eat some more, kids open gifts, gift stealing exchange, this one ending around midnight.  I’ve railed against this late night torture for parents, and now that some of my younger cousins have toddlers, they’re beginning to see my point.  Exhausted kids are cranky kids.  Serves them right for not listening to me ten years ago.

Late Christmas Eve (or early Christmas morning, depending on how you look at it) at around 1am, I’m driving home.  My kids are watching a DVD in the backseat (one of my Xmas gifts to the family), and I’m totally beat.  By the time we’re back in Pleasanton and the kids are tucked away, it’s 2am.  Now my wife decides that she’ll fill the stockings, like the kids still believe in Santa.  Sigh.  

So what do I get for running around on Christmas Eve…  the flu.  I’ve been alternating chicken soup, Theraflu, and trips to the toilet for the past two days.  Whee.  I came back into work today.  My goals are threefold:

1. Just by showing up, they have to pay me for today, whether or not I stay.  This might not seem like a big deal, but when you know you’re laid off effective 12/31, every penny (or few hundred dollars) counts.

2. Get others sick.  Next week is the Worldwide Sales Meeting, a corporate cluster-fuck where they burn money like the Pentagon on a bender.  They lay me off, and a week later, they go golfing in Palm Springs.  Lovely.  Fuck that, I want them all to have the Hershey squirts while they’re there.  And no, I’m not bitter.

3. Clean out my office.  Since I don’t know how long I’ll stay on Friday, I want to get all my stuff cleared out ASAP.  If I wait until the last minute, I might not get all the stuff I want to take from here.  No, not office supplies, but over the last four years, I’ve toted a lot of shit here (pictures, business cards, training documentation) that is MINE, and I want to make sure I get it all.

-Mandatory Poker Content- One of the great things about online poker is that you can play when you’re sicker than a dog.  I fired up a couple of $20+2 SnGs at FullTilt over the weekend and carded a first and a third, bumping up my winnings enough to pay the freakin’ Donkeysucker for the fantasy football leagues he won.  Dick.

The closing hand last night was amusing.  I have a slim 5-4 lead in chips head-to-head with the blinds getting to the ridiculous stage.  I had a pretty good read on the guy and had been getting my money in at the right times.  He sucked out on me a couple of times and I sucked out on him (with proper pot odds for both of us), so we were pretty evenly matched.  I raised to 2xBB from the SB (standard) with AJs hoping for a push from him.  He kicked in a pot-size bet and I immediately pushed, putting him on a weak ace or king, but no big pair (which he would’ve slowplayed).  Sure enough he called with KJo and I had him dominated.  Uh, at least I did until the flop brought him KQ3.  The turn was a deflating King, and I was dead to a Ten.  And the river….?  TEN!  Not a suckout, because I got my money in with a big lead, but a nice miracle card anyway.  

I seem to have found a better footing now at FullTilt, cashing in about 50% of the tourneys there.  A lot of weak-tight players there mean continuation bets are often respected.  People seem to think that raises preflop indicate a face card and a bet into an ace-high board means you must have paired your aces.  Initiating a bet on a draw is often cold-called, meaning you can set your own pot odds.  Of course, this doesn’t always work because odds are odds, and not certainties.  I dropped a third of my stack chasing a nut flush draw that missed…  but I had pot odds.

Stay tuned this week for my end of NFL season review and the playoff preview.

Weekend

First off, I told you so about the Bengals.  Gotta get that in.

A truly remarkable weekend.  I lost both of my semi-final FFL games, leaving me with absolutely nothing to root for during the last two weeks of the year.  I’m even hoping that the 49ers lose (Reggie Bush Bowl, January 1st…  Be there!).

Bled through the pocket change at PokerStars.  After withdrawing a big chunk to Neteller, I had left just enough for a couple of penny-ante (well, $6.50) SnGs which clunked to the ground.  I think I have $.40 now, so the next time they have a $.25+.15 tournament, I’ll play again.

Funny thing is….  I’m on a bit of a tear at FullTilt.  Won two straight $20+2 and cashed a $30+3 over the weekend to bump my bankroll there to its highest level ever.  One of the $20 wins was from the Torrance Marriott Courtyard on Saturday night.  My brother-in-law turned 60 and my wife’s family threw a big bash in SoCal on Saturday.  Of course, since he turned 60, he left early in the evening, and a bunch of us went out to see “The Chronicles of Narnia”  [Side note: very good, very entertaining flick].  After a late dinner at Steve’s, home of the tastiest, greasiest chili fries and tacos in the world, the wife and kids crashed as soon as we got back to the hotel, leaving me to fire up FTP in search of some late-night entertainment.  

A lot of people have been talking about aggression, but I’ve never paid much heed, preferring my tight-weak nut-peddling style.  It’s been reasonably successful, but not wildly so, and it’s been very low-risk.  Well, that kind of shit doesn’t pay at FTP, where the name of the game is aggression.  And I may finally be adjusting to the different table dynamic.  Nut peddling is fine if you have a table with primarily calling stations, and you can get them to call down your nut flush with middle pair, or if they bet the minimum on the turn, giving up 10-1 pot odds.  FullTilt  typically features 3xBB preflop raises on every hand, and minimum half-pot bets postflop, meaning you better be ready to “bet it like you got it” or take some short odds on your draws or you’ll be blinded to death.

Two possibilities: the players are drunk or weak at midnight PST on Saturday OR I may be learning to adjust to the higher aggression factor.  Or both.  Oh well, as long as I’m staying profitable…

For now, my only place of play will be the FTP SnGs.  Once we hit January, I will probably try some of the MTT and the bigger payouts since I’ll have more time to spend at the computer.  

The future of online poker

I’ve made a minor decision regarding online play.  I’ve pulled $1K out of my various accounts, leaving pocket change at FTP and PokerStars.  For now, I’ll let the money fester in Neteller, ready for that rainy day that is likely to come with joblessness.  It’s close enough that I can get it within a couple of weeks, but far enough away that it won’t be accessed unless the situation becomes dire.

Of course, that didn’t keep me from coughing up a quick $20+2 at FTP last night, running my flopped set into a flopped straight.  Sigh.  One would have hoped that 98o would fold to a preflop 3xBB raise from my 77, but once he called that bet, I was cooked.  765 on the flop meant I hit top set and I’m not nearly a good enough player to NOT push all-in right there.  Nice to hit top set and still be a 2-1 underdog.  

Anyway, some more money will hopefully be coming from the FFL playoffs.  I’m in the playoffs in two leagues, and I’m also guaranteed some rebate from a pick-em league, so my football managing has been +EV for this year.  Scary how income from fantasy football becomes family INCOME in times of financial stress.  Actually, it isn’t stress yet, since I’m still getting paid to occupy this desk (until 12/31), and I’ll get a severance that will pay me through February.  I estimate that the cash flow from unemployment and various other ventures should be adequate to keep us out of cat food scrapings for at least six months.

UltimateBet is really scrambling for users lately.  I got a disk in the mail with the frightening visages of Hellmuth and Duke, ironically teaming up in the sinking UB ship.  Like I mentioned in the past, I foresee a general shakeout of the online poker industry during the next year with the likely survivors being Party (obviously), PokerStars, and FullTilt.  Most of the other sites are giving away money to try and drive traffic, which leads to short-term playing and bonus whoring.  Once the bonus is cleared and withdrawable, it is withdrawn.  The main benefit to this is that investors might look and see x thousand users at a given time and think that the site is viable, when in reality almost all the players are either house shills or playing to clear bonus money.

Think about the cycle many of us have followed.  RinkyDinkPoker has a great 50% deposit bonus for XX raked hands.  They don’t have much traffic, but the bonus is attractive, so we plunk down some cash, roughly based on our own self-set play rate, and likely time to complete the bonus.  We play until that is satisfied, testing out the site and the other players.  Let’s say we drop 30% (maybe 25% to other players and 5% in rake) of our original deposit clearing our bonus, creating a net 20% increase in our investment.  We immediately withdraw the deposited amount, maybe even including the bonus money, to wait for the next whoring opportunity, play out the remaining funds (house money), and leave the site indefinitely (after all, we lost 30% while playing).  The house has gained NOTHING, and we’ve essentially played for free.  Umm, that’s not a strong business model.

Profitability is based on rake, juice, and interest income (we’ll discount the nasty implications of house players), and all of those require VOLUME, VOLUME, VOLUME.  If a site depends on strong players chasing bonuses, they’re not gonna be profitable.  They need lousy players.  A lot of lousy players.  Players that will blow their bankrolls before they meet the required hands for bonus release.  Party has it right, advertising to the lowest common denominator with their “bad poker face” ads.  PokerStars and FullTilt rely on poker jock-sniffers, and promote their endorsers and celebrities more than their tables.  Pacific is targeting the problem gamblers, touting its connection with 888.  Other poker/betting Siamese twin sites are popping up, pumping up their blackjack or craps connections.  

Prediction:  By the end of 2006, the only three significant poker sites will be Party, PokerStars, and FullTilt.  The rest will either be gone or be absorbed into full casino sites and operated as just another table game.

First off, because it needs to be said....

Screw all of you that had a great time in Vegas!

Checking the first few trip reports, it sounds like it was an unqualified blast.

Screw all of you.

And to everyone who took money from DonkeyPuncher/Usher... thank you.

FFL Bubble time

Well, this is it.  The last week of the FFL regular season.  The quest to make the final table in Fantasy Football.  If you’re already in the playoffs, congratulations, and if you have a lot of Indianapolis Colts, you should be hoping that they beat Jacksonville this week.  If Indy loses (unlikely) , they’ll still have homefield clinched throughout the playoffs and will probably rest their starters [think penultimate pre-season game, about three quarters].  No more 100-yd games for Edge, no multiple TD games for Marvin or Reggie.  If Indy wins, they’ll be shooting for the brass ring for the rest of the year.

On a side note, I don’t have a problem with the ’72 Dolphins celebrating the defeat of the last unbeaten team every year.  After all, it’s the pinnacle of their sad, pathetic lives.  If they somehow get asterisked by the Colts, they won’t be known for ANYTHING, aside from being petty, arthritic old men.  I have a bigger problem with the networks showing the celebration every year.  I mean, do they televise the Bulls celebrating the last team to lose their 11th game?  Who the hell cares what Mercury Morris is doing, except his parole officer?

Besides, they weren’t the “best” team ever.  They only won 17 games.  Several teams since then have won 18.  The ’84 49ers, the ’85 Bears, hell, even the four-time loser Buffalo Bills would have rolled the Dolphins by two touchdowns each.  I’m rooting for the Colts to go undefeated just so we can send that entire team back to their rocking chairs and houseboats and get them the hell off my television.  They were more like the undefeated Nebraska or Oklahoma teams of the 70’s and 80’s, completely focused on the run and defense.  Solid, but not great.

[NOTE: I just simmed the games on whatifsports.com and the ’84 49ers won FIVE straight at the Orange Bowl against the ’72 Dolphins]

On to this week….

Bears at Stillers – What’s the O/U for this game, ten?  I say Ben throws…  a lot.  If Nathan Vasher doesn’t score twice, the Bears don’t have a shot.  Stillers 20-9.

Browns at Bengals – Lost in the hullabaloo over the Reggie Bush Bowl (SF/Houston in week 17) is the Matt Leinart Sweepstakes.  The Browns are pushing for that one against the Jets.  Look for the Browns to lay down like the dogs they are…  28-12.

Texans at Titans – Tank tank tank.  That splashing sound you hear is the Texans flushing the season down the toilet and hoping to draft Reggie Bush, who’s calling up Eli Manning and John Elway for draft advice.  Also look for Pete Carroll to be offered the Texan head coaching job soon.  Titans will win, well, because the Texans don’t want to…  23-17.

Colts at Jags – 17-13.  Colts.

Pats at Bills – I just got a call from Bill Bellichick who wants me to play corner this week for the Pats.  Apparently, nobody else wants to get hurt.  Pats are just trying to get healthy and will get gouged for yardage by the suddenly pass-happy Bills.  Will they lose?  Probably not, but 24-21 sounds about right for good weather.  Bad weather will drop this one down to 17-14.

Raiders at Jets – Marques Tuiasosopo.  Yeah right.  This one will be the stinker of the week.  I predict 30 penalties.  Raiders prevail, but only because the Jets want Leinart or Bush.  20-17

Rams at Vikings – Strangely enough, this is the most compelling game for me.  The suddenly resurgent Vikings against the wildly inconsistent Lambs.  The loser of this game might as well book their family time in January.  And every time I predict a shootout, the game is low-scoring… so I’ll try it just one more time.  31-27 Vikings.

Bucs at Panthers – John Fox is building towards the playoffs and shooting for the #2 seed.  The Bucs are still relying on Chris Simms [scary thought] and defense, so they’re relatively easy to gameplan against.  I’d bet Simms makes three turnovers and the Panthers capitalize big.  30-14.

Giants at Iggles – Ewww, the Iggles are bad bad bad.  Most teams are bad when they lose, oh, their top ten offensive players.  The Giants aren’t that good either, but they’ll do enough to beat down the Iggle fourth-stringers 20-10

49ers at Seahawks – Didn’t they just play?  Oh well, Seahawks win.  Ho-hum.  31-17.

Skins at Cards – God, the Cards stink.  It took a heroic effort by Anquan Boldin against some grade-school tackling to beat the Alex Smith-led 49ers.  Look for more points from the Skins, but not more from the Cards 24-17.

Ravens at Broncos – Ray Lewis is out for the year.  Kyle Boller on the road.  Broncos at home.  Add it up.  Do the math.  You’ll get Broncos 34-16.

Chiefs at Cowboys – On paper, the best matchup of the week, so it’ll be a dud.  The Chiefs step up and dominate a not-very-impressive Cowboy team.  Drew Bledsoe will hear the boo-birds leading the Cowboys to a 27-17 loss.

Fish at Bolts – Kellen Winslow.  Uwe von Schamman.  Dan Fouts.  Hook and trail with Tony Nathan.  Ahhh, the good old days.  Now it’s just LT right, LT left, LT in the end zone… at least twice.  28-17.

Lions at Packers – 21-14.  Who cares?

Aints at Falcons – A national tv audience might inspire the Aints to actually try.  Then again, probably not.  The Falcons will be in a must-win situation, and the Aints quit a long, long time ago.  23-20.

The needs of the many

“The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few…”

“Or the one.”

Yeah, I’m a geek, so what?

Anyway, we’re already starting to hear the bleats of the lambs lamenting the death of Rigoberto Alpizar.  His wife is saying that he was bipolar and hadn’t taken his meds.  The press is harping on the fact that he didn’t actually have a bomb like he claimed.  It’s only a matter of time before the knee-jerk bleeding hearts start calling for the disarming of the air marshals.

The air marshals did their job.  If the intelligence teams in the Middle East did their job as well, we probably wouldn’t be stuck in the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan.  As a matter of fact, I feel more confident in our national security (as least as it relates to air travel) than I have in four years since 9/11.  

Let’s check the facts here.

• It’s a flight from Colombia (Yellow flag!)


• A clearly agitated man has a backpack (Red flag alert!)


• He runs up and down the aisle claiming to have a bomb (Double Red Flag!!)


• Air marshals identify themselves and pursue the man


• They tell the man to drop the backpack


• The man reaches into the backpack where he claims to have a bomb


• The air marshals drill the guy between five and six times, killing him

So, what’s the problem with the behavior of the marshals?  I don’t see any.  In fact, these guys should be rewarded for bravery and heroism.  After all, IF the guy really had a bomb like he claimed, surely they were risking their lives by confronting him.  Even something as small as a hand grenade could have taken them out at that distance.  They easily could have shrunk into the corner and pretended to be regular passengers and taken cover behind a really fat dude or hidden in the lavatory.  Instead, they confronted the threat, and diffused it with no harm to innocent passengers, civilians, or even property.

Good, good, good.

And this will surely end all of that airport banter about bombs and guns and weapons.  Remember how people used to joke about carrying weapons onto planes, just to piss off the 70-year old Filipino “security” guard?  Um, that’ll stop now that people know that deadly force will be used to ELIMINATE any threat to public security.

Of course, it’s only a matter of time before the ACLU will leap aboard this and try to claim that the man somehow had the right to threaten the lives of the other passengers without being shot multiple times.  The allegation that he was mentally ill should have absolutely no bearing on anything, but somehow he’ll be portrayed as a tragic figure.  Well, as long as bipolar people don’t run around with backpacks and claim to have a bomb, they probably won’t be shot.  

Sigh.

Let me be one of the first to say this, THANK YOU TO ALL OF THE AIR MARSHALS EVERYWHERE!  YOU GUYS ARE ALL HEROES IN MY BOOK!

I have no delusions about my place in the poker blogger hierarchy, so I won’t pretend that people are gonna be wandering around Vegas asking “Where is ToddCommish?” or “Is that guy ToddCommish or Brad Pitt?”. You’ll all be partying it up (and rightly so) and dropping the Hammer on unsuspecting tourists and mooching free food from unguarded buffets.

Sigh.

If you see a guy that looks like a cross between this guy...















And this guy


















Take his money with every ounce of malice aforethought imaginable.

Yep, it’ll be the Donkeypuncher.

If you do that, I’ll know. In my little dark corner of the world, I’ll know.

And I’ll be happy.

Languishing

Dumped two SnG buy-ins yesterday totaling $60, both times in fifth place, both times ending up shortstacked with AJ facing 55, both times coming up with empty boards. An interesting possibility of random number generators matching up seeds…

I’m wondering if my play might be suffering due to my job situation. I’m not consciously playing tighter, but I know I’m not making nearly as many positional plays or speculative plays as I used to, and I’m missing out on some relatively inexpensive jackpot flops. Frankly, the money in my poker accounts is, for all intents and purposes, discretionary cash --- just this side of a sunk cost. Maybe I should just pull up a chaise on the side of the poker wading pool and relax for a bit, because I sure as hell ain’t winning right now.

Football-wise, things aren’t much better. I’m in the playoff hunt in two of three leagues, but have been eliminated in the DP-run blogger/reader league. At least I’m ahead of Performify… In the only league that matters financially ($100/player), I’m tied for the final playoff berth with two weeks left. Winning that one will be tough since the DP is in first place with Carson Palmer and LT, but even pocket aces lose once in awhile.

Back to the NFL picks. As always, the predictions are for entertainment value only.

Falcons at Panthers –I predicted that if TO didn’t finish the year with the Iggles, the Panthers would rule the NFC. I’m sticking by that prediction. Look for the Panthers to literally HURT Michael Vick in this one. He still doesn’t know how to absorb a hit. Panthers 27-20, with a late TD drive by Schaub to make it close.

Bills at Dolphins – Remember when this used to be a glamour matchup? Kelly vs. Marino. Andre Reed vs. the Marks. Now it’s JP vs Gus. It’s become like the NFL Europe or the XFL. Remember my credo, when no one cares, it’s usually a good game. Buffalo wins amidst the boo-birds of South Florida, 24-21.

Bengals at Steelers – Ben is hurtin’ for certain. The only reason he’s playing is that Cowher has no faith in MadBat (the frightening hybrid of Maddox and Batch). Look for the Steelers to rush over thirty times. If the Bungles get up early, it could get ugly fast. I look for this to be the piss-on-the-hydrant game for Cincy where they stake out their territory as top dogs in the Central, 27-17.

Cowboys at Giants – God, I love this time of year with the divisional matchups. Two schizophrenic QBs, two megalomaniacal coaches, but only one great RB. Tiki wins this one for the Giants, 21-14.

Packers at Bears – Sigh. I keep waiting for some team to actually play well against the Bears. At some point, I’m gonna have to admit that they might have a great defense. Well, they still have a shitty offense. I’m gonna try and jinx them by picking them to goad the rotting corpse of Brett Favre into four turnovers and a 24-10 victory.


Texans at Ravens – Who else thinks the Texans have already printed up Reggie Bush jerseys for sale? They just hired Derek Bell as their motivational coach for their Operation Shutdown. Ravens 20-7.

Jags at Browns – David Garrard. Didn’t he play Buck Rogers with the yummy Erin Gray? Why does every team but the 49ers have a backup QB that comes off the bench and leads the team to a thrilling victory? The 49ers trot out Cody fucking Pickett to go one-for-seventeen. Anyway, Jags win because the Browns don’t care, 17-9.

Vikings at Lions – Oooh, Jeff Garcia vs. Brad Johnson. A rematch of the 2002 playoffs. Or is it 2003? Will the Lions win one for the Mooch, or go completely into the tank? Are the Vikings really in the playoff picture? No, yes, and no. Vikings 27-23.

Bucs at Aints – Who the hell woke up Chris Simms? He’s looking more like Boomer Esiason and less like Todd Marijuanavich every game. And the Aints ain’t trying. Cadillac re-emerges for 100+ yards. Bucs roll 30-21.

Titans at Colts – Trap game. The Colts will be overconfident and cocky and will consequently only win by 14. 31-17.

Cards at 49ers – Ahhhh, the game of the week. Alex Smith returns to the lineup in the NFL’s marquee matchup. Here’s a bold prediction, Alex Smith will rush for over 50 yards, and lead the 49ers to a thrilling 24-10 loss. But, oh, what a future.

Skins at Lambs – OK, so the kid went to Harvard. Big fucking deal. So the kid came off the bench and beat a team that would rather draft Reggie Bush than actually try in the second half. Big fucking deal. Look for a track meet, Skins win 34-30.

Broncos at Chiefs – You can’t polish a turd. He’s still Jake Plummer. Maybe he’s just waiting until the playoffs to melt down. Chiefs win, well, because they HAVE to. 27-24.

Jets at Pats – I think most of us thought that this would be the game where the Pats clinch the East. Not quite sure who is QBing for the Jets these days. Whatever happened to Glenn Foley? Eh, no matter, Pats roll up the stats in this one 30-7.

Raiders at Chargers – I frickin’ hate LT. He’s killed me this year in more FFL than anyone in any year. Every time I play against a team with LT, he blows up. Every. Single. Time. Dick. Now that I’m not playing against him, he’ll have a shitty game. The Bolts will still win, but LT is under 100 yds and only has one TD. 26-16.

Seahawks at Iggles – Weather might dictate this one. Good weather, the Seahawks win by 10. Bad weather, they win by 17. Make it either 31-14 or 31-21.