What are the odds? Seriously, do you really know the odds? I played a SnG last night, made it to H2H down by a 7-1 chip margin, and won four straight all-in hands, despite being an underdog in all of them, and won.

Check it out.

Hand #2 of H2H (I folded 63 from SB in hand #1): I have 2367, he has 17633, Blinds 600/1200/50, I pick up K7o and push after he limps. He calls with QQ (?). My chances are 27.2% to 72.4% (note: all odds presented here are from cardplayer.com). Flop is Kxx rainbow punctuated with a 7 on the turn. I’ve doubled up.

Hand #3: I have 4734, he has 15266. I push preflop with A3o from SB, he calls with A9o. Ooops. My chances are 23.85% to 60.22%. Board comes J63,T, 5 and my juggernaut treys win. Now I’m almost even.

Hand #4: I have 9468, he has 10532. He pushes from SB. I figure he’s tilting like Phil Hellmuth at a DADI tournament and call with K5o. He flips A9o again. Double ooops. My odds this time are 36.23% to 63.31%. Board comes 8T5, 2, Q. He’s teetering on the precipice now.

Hand #5: I have lots, he has bupkus. I call his forced all-in blind with 82o (a near-hammer, not sure if it has a name yet). He flips a sooted Woolworth. 33.15% to 64.89%. Flop by now is a foregone conclusion. 88Q puts him in the grave, the 2 on the turn covers him with dirt. My money now.

Four straight hands. My BEST odds are 7-4 against me. Total chance of me winning all of these four hands preflop (when the money got in) was 0.77% or approximately 1 in 128.

Now, to be fair, I didn’t have to win the last one. I still would’ve had a huge chip lead, but even taking that one out of the equation, the odds were still about 40-1 against me, roughly the odds of a one-outer. So the next time I lose to a one-outer, maybe I won’t get as mad.

Maybe.

The doldrums have hit the poker blogging community. It’s gotten so bad that CJ/G-Rob are threatening idle bloggers with banishment from their blogrolls. So here I am.

It’s 113 degrees here. That’s one-one-three. I’m lucky I made it to my air-conditioned office without sticking in the asphalt tar pits of our parking lot like some ancient mastodon. People are freaking DYING from the heat because PG&E decided that shutting down parts of the grid was a good idea, forgetting that some people need their A/C and modems (and possibly insignificant shit like refrigeration and health monitoring devices) to live.

I’m still playing sporadic SnGs at FullTilt and Party. I even joined a HORSE SnG for the first time in weeks (came in 2nd). I’m still not a good poker player, just better than some of the low limit clowns that infest the poker sites. I still make dumb moves, like the day before yesterday when I pushed a baby flush (52) into an adult flush (Q4) when I was two from the money. I cleverly thought I was closing out the high flush draws, ignoring the fact that someone may have already had the flush. Ahh, that was money well spent.

Mrs. Commish is on a new kick; adding on to our house. Little side note for you non-Californians out there. Our house is a three-bedroom, two-bathroom model with a typical suburban ¼ acre lot, 1372 sq ft. We bought it eight years ago for $244K. The same model is currently selling for $700K+. We’ve made some minor remodels (kitchen dome lights, Corian countertops, new tile, shade structure in the back yard) over the years, but with the kids now 13 and 11, we probably need more room. We had an architect come by last night for some rough sketches and some general advice. Basically, he says that additions cost around $250/sq foot. We’re currently considering a new master bedroom/bathroom with walk-in closet (guess which one wants that), along with an expanded dining room. Total sq footage = around 400. Do the math. $100,000. Nice.

Maybe I should’ve kept that HORSE satellite seat….

Ha! I lied yesterday. I popped onto Party just to see how much money I really had there and found $12 and change waiting like money in the sofa. So I did what any self-respecting card-playing donkey would do… I joined a $6 SnG.

And won. One of these days I’ll learn to just stay the hell away.

This was a beaut too. When we got to the final three and the 300/600 level, I had a minor hill to climb. I had 935 chips, not so good when the other two guys had 6,745 and 12,920. I chopped my first all-in with A3 against A4 when the river paired aces, negating the kicker issues. I folded one garbage hand before auto-pushing with K3 and tripling up when I tripped treys against A8 (one of the schmucks folded to a bet into the empty sidepot by the other schmuck… ahh, Party).

With over 4K in chips, I could be a little more patient, especially when I had already determined that the other two guys had NFI how to play the fold-or-push stages of a SnG. So I chip down to 2400 before picking up AQs in SB with blinds at 400/800/25. After the button limped in, I insta-pushed and…. Nothing. “Connection lost” was all that Party would tell me. I didn’t even know if it accepted my insta-push! I debated a quick reboot, but the system re-connected fairly quickly and I only missed one other hand. I won my push (obviously) and was rewarded with 6500 chips on my return. I immediately requested the hand history for the hand I missed and it turns out I was called by KTo. We both missed the JJ954 board and my Ace carried the day. The other hand I missed was AJo, which would’ve won as well. Oh well….

Woo hoo, now I'm up over $30 at Party! I'm ready for the big time ($11 SnG)!

Still alive...

Well, it looks like I haven’t blogged in quite a while… Doesn’t really matter, but my one or two readers must be desperate for commish-related news.

Poker play has been lackluster at best. Only currently banking money at FullTilt (around $500) with about a grand sitting in Neteller. I just haven’t had the urge to play a lot lately. Sometimes (and this is a BAD thing), I’ll just pop onto a site and play a quick SnG and lose $20-30 faster than you can say Waffles. My interest level has diminished in my own play to the point where I’m making mathematically unsound plays out of boredom. It’s still interesting to me to read about poker (still check bloglines every day) and to watch poker on TV… I just don’t have the oomph to play.

Played in a home game this weekend, finished up $50 or so, after peaking at +$100 and buying in for $60. Played better during the home game than at any of the SnGs I’ve played in the last month, even though it was limit. I think I’m training myself to play limit better, but possibly at the expense of my NL game. Oh well. Two steps forward, one step back.

Glad you all had a great time in Vegas, props to all those who managed to cash in the ever growing WPBT tournament, especially for my old bud, the Donkeypuncher. I’m just wondering when a blogger (other than Wil) gets some face time on WSOP broadcasts, and is actually cited as being a blogger.

“Here is Paul McGuire, some internet readers may know him as ‘Pauly’, the blogger behind the popular ‘Tao of Poker’ blog. Norman, do you read his blog?”

“Gee, Lon, I can’t even spell ‘blog’, but my ex-wives could sure spell ‘alimony’”.

“Well, that’s because you’re a complete asshat and don’t know shit about anything. You must be blowing half of the ESPN programming staff just to get this gig, you fucking hack. Back to the main table, we see…”

Most of my non-poker leisure time has been taken up with Hardball Dynasty on WhatIfSports. My San Francisco Flaxseeds franchise is tied for first place in world #2, and my San Jose BadNewsBees franchise is struggling along at .500 in world #34. Oddly enough, I’m a “Hall-of-Famer” at WhatIfSports, an appellation they bestow upon geeks who waste more than $X on their site. There are around 1500 such designees and I’m not sure whether to be proud or mortified.

Anyway, in non-news, Michelle Wie didn’t make the cut on the PGA. This is a recording.