Monday, July 31, 2006

What are the odds? Seriously, do you really know the odds? I played a SnG last night, made it to H2H down by a 7-1 chip margin, and won four straight all-in hands, despite being an underdog in all of them, and won.

Check it out.

Hand #2 of H2H (I folded 63 from SB in hand #1): I have 2367, he has 17633, Blinds 600/1200/50, I pick up K7o and push after he limps. He calls with QQ (?). My chances are 27.2% to 72.4% (note: all odds presented here are from Flop is Kxx rainbow punctuated with a 7 on the turn. I’ve doubled up.

Hand #3: I have 4734, he has 15266. I push preflop with A3o from SB, he calls with A9o. Ooops. My chances are 23.85% to 60.22%. Board comes J63,T, 5 and my juggernaut treys win. Now I’m almost even.

Hand #4: I have 9468, he has 10532. He pushes from SB. I figure he’s tilting like Phil Hellmuth at a DADI tournament and call with K5o. He flips A9o again. Double ooops. My odds this time are 36.23% to 63.31%. Board comes 8T5, 2, Q. He’s teetering on the precipice now.

Hand #5: I have lots, he has bupkus. I call his forced all-in blind with 82o (a near-hammer, not sure if it has a name yet). He flips a sooted Woolworth. 33.15% to 64.89%. Flop by now is a foregone conclusion. 88Q puts him in the grave, the 2 on the turn covers him with dirt. My money now.

Four straight hands. My BEST odds are 7-4 against me. Total chance of me winning all of these four hands preflop (when the money got in) was 0.77% or approximately 1 in 128.

Now, to be fair, I didn’t have to win the last one. I still would’ve had a huge chip lead, but even taking that one out of the equation, the odds were still about 40-1 against me, roughly the odds of a one-outer. So the next time I lose to a one-outer, maybe I won’t get as mad.



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