Monday, July 18, 2005

Thoughts for the Monday following the WSOP:

- Anyone else think Matusow tanked so he wouldn’t have to answer questions about the WSOP Champ having a rap sheet? I mean, he was out before I could even hit “refresh” once on Pauly’s blog. Sheesh, even Party Poker donkeys last longer at SnGs.

- Granted, it might not be as romantic, but parlaying $10K into $7.5M would only take parlaying ten straight passes at craps (much less if you take odds). Seems to me that your odds are significantly better trying craps. Granted, places 2-600 still have payouts at the WSOP, but the ultimate payout is still –EV compared to craps.

- If you prefer roulette, you could just pick one number to put your $10K on, and if you win, let it ride. Even with the horrific 5% house advantage, your true odds and EV are better with this strategy.

- Hell, you could play a Keno ticket for $10K and have better EV.

So why do people who are “dead money” continue to pony up the $10K entry fee for the WSOP when they could legitimately find better odds and EV simply by walking into the next room and playing “Let it Ride” or Caribbean Stud?

Mathematically, the WSOP is a bad bet… for EVERYONE who enters. Think about that.


At 1:23 PM, Blogger stefNfloyd said...

Maybe so... but it's a hell of lot more interactive than the PowerBall lottery and much cheaper if all it costs to enter is the entry fee to a satellite.


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