Tuesday, November 01, 2005

End of football linemaking

End of football betting experiment.  1-4 on football line bets.  An imaginary $225 gone.  Along with that imaginary Xbox that I would’ve bought with the winnings.

Ah, those tricky 49ers.  This week, they will wheel out their fourth different starting quarterback in their fourth consecutive game.  Rattay, Smith, Dorsey, Pickett.  Supposedly, they’re bringing in some veterans to “take a look”.  Hopefully, none of them are named Jeff George.  

Beating the Bucs was a case of Chris Simms being worse than Ken Dorsey/Cody Pickett.  The only reason Simms’ stats look reasonable was that he threw a ten-yard hitch to Joey Galloway that became a 78-yard touchdown.  Basically, Simms looked like a left-handed Marc Wilson, right down to the fumbles on first contact.  Interesting to see how long it takes Chuckie to name Rattay as the starter.

NFL Week in Review

Bullseyes: Texans getting their first win (prediction 17-13, actual 19-16), Panthers whipping the Vikings (prediction 30-13, actual 38-13), Chargers scoring TDs while KC got FGs (prediction 31-23, actual 28-20), Carson Palmer throwing 3 TDs against the Packers

Hits : Cowboys big over Cards, Chicago/Detroit being a close ho-hum game (prediction 16-13, actual 13-13 at the end of regulation),

Whiffs : Giants/Skins and Iggles/Broncos being close game (oops), Bills/Pats and Steelers/Ravens being blowouts (double oops),

Nobody predicted a 49er win, so I’ll take a pass on that one.  And nobody cares about the Fins/Saints or Raiders/Titans.

Slight Poker Content

Was ITM half the time last night for a net -$9.  Not good, but was pretty much card dead and did a lousy job of reacting to the bad cards by NOT changing gears.  On the very first hand in one of the SnGs, two guys both went all-in.  I expected AA vs. KK, but saw… AA vs. AA.  No four-flush came so the pot was anti-climatic, and they both won a whopping T15 each.

I have a really tough time changing mindsets when I’m cold-decked.  I just can’t bring myself to raise pots with Q9 or T8s.  Mathematically and probabilistically, I’m expecting that I’ll get SOME decent hands, and I’ve made most of my money pouncing on those opportunities.  When I go almost an entire hour without seeing any good hands, I’m doomed to push-and-pray when the blinds escalate.  Not a prescription for profitability.

Anyway, I’ll probably stick to my regular MO for the most part.  But, if I’m not catching any cards, be more aware of the blinds in the middle part of the SnG, and try to take some chances when I’m in a good position and marginal hands to avoid the late game push-and-pray.  It might be better to chip up early with mediocre hands and not put myself in that position.


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